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The Northern VA Association of Realtors (NVAR) has published September’s housing market statistics. The real story is in what the data might be pointing to, but first this month’s statistics and charts.
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| NVAR September Market Statistics |
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| Monthly Inventory v. Monthly Home Sales since January, 2005 |
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| August and September Inventory Since 2006 |
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| August and September Home Sales since 2006 |
Just after the local housing market collapsed at the end of July, 2005, I pulled all of the past inventory and sales numbers and charted them in relation to each other. I was surprised to see that the two lines had intersected each other back in March, 2005. I realized then that had I been paying attention to the relationship of these two numbers a little more carefully, I would not have been so surprised by what happened to the market just four months later. I have been charting these two numbers in relationship to each other ever since.
For the first time since July, 2005, these two lines, instead of running relatively parallel or even moving towards each other at this time of year, are actually diverging. To me, this indicates a local housing market that is on the verge of collapsing again unless one of two things happen (or even both!): 1. Inventory reduces. 2. Buyers start buying again.
From 2001-2003, the number of active listings and the number of homes sold ran relatively parallel to each other. At the end of 2003, the latest real estate boom started and ran through March, 2005. From 2005 through 2009, the number of active listings always started to converge with the number of homes sold at the end of the year…until this year. Take a look at the following yearly charts:
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